Kosovo, the new EU trampoline for Russia after Brexit

26-12-2018, 15:35

When Bismarck made the balance of power and realpolitik in Europe and the Eastern Courts (Tsarist Russia, Austria, Germany) for the Balkans, he was not interested in taking concessions for himself on the Peninsula. He just wanted to avoid splitting the coalition for Balkan reasons. For the Albanian issue at the Berlin Congress, Bismarck stated that “Albania is nothing more than a geographical notion”.

The Balkans was used as a trampoline for tribute for maintaining the balances of great powers. Whereas, at the beginning of the 20th century, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, after the Balkan wars, would save some of the territories of Albania, with the only geostrategic tendency, to prevent Serbs from coming into the Adriatic Sea because every port of Serbia was also the Russian port.

Even the First World War fires were to some extent fried in the Balkans. But utilizing the Balkans as a trampoline for the great power struggles remained a peninsula separate from the invasions and deep divisions that had created great powers since the Ottoman Empire, and even the communist and federations states.

The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the eastern communist bloc in the Western Balkans would be bloody. Serbia's military enterprise had the tendency to conquer all of the former Yugoslavia and the Western Balkans and make a massive cleansing in Kosovo. Slobodan Milošević’s actions, forced NATO to make a humanitarian intervention and remove Serbia’s military forces. Consequently, having no other better solution, Kosovo declared independence on February 17, 2008.

After the process of recognition from most of Europe’s countries and beyond, and especially from U.S. support, the Kosovo issue has now become a European trampoline to keep Russia on board, which depends on fuel and prosperous trade. In addition, Russia has found alternatives for its gas to China as the alternative axis China-Russia-Iran and India, where by 2025 Russia and India predict trade to reach up to $50 billion; this has enabled Russia to benefit more than it was able to earn 10 years ago in the geostrategic concession bazaar.

Russia's return to the game starting with the battle as a response to Kosovo in Georgia with the detachment of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, then Crimea from Ukraine and the war in Donetsk and Luhansk, when Ukraine and Georgia disclosed their NATO and EU aspirations EU, and with the controversy in Nagorno-Karabakh, with its successful aid to Assad in Syria, managed to get back to the international arena. Moscow does hold other important cards by not forgetting the war that involves Balkan countries, cyber warfare, tendencies to interfere in electoral elections and by holding the Russian “Trojan horses” within the EU itself.

From all this game, the battle lost in the Western Balkans by Russia, following the siege of NATO and its ally Serbia, Russia nevertheless surrendered and now wants a good strategic concession to maintain its interference in the region, always utilizing the European countries' approach to the equilibrium mentality in defection of American values.